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Thermal Coal in Transition December 2022
Can Vietnam Go Green?

Clean energy investment is expected to exceed US$1.4tn in 2022, following a 12% annual growth in 2021. However, limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius requires an estimate of over US$4tn in annual clean-energy investment.

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Aluminium December 2022
What’s Driving Japan’s Aluminium Demand?

Despite being the fifth largest primary aluminium demand country, Japan no longer possesses any domestic production capacity. As such, the country is dependent on imports to meet its requirements.

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Nickel December 2022
O Canada, Nickel from the True North

A growing EV market is driving the growth of the batteries market, which in turn fuels finished nickel demand. In 2022 demand for battery-grade nickel is forecast to be 290kt. Many auto manufacturers want ‘clean’ nickel to justify the production of EVs for the energy transition.

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LNG December 2022
Feeding Europe’s Hunger for Gas in 2023

The beginning of 2022 saw the European gas market change irrevocably. The collapse of Russian gas exports to Europe has left the continent without sufficient supply – short over 100bcm of gas flow - and governments have been scrambling to find a way to keep the lights on and the heaters working for the 2022-23 winter.

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Iron Ore December 2022
New Projects Pop-up in Brazil

Brazil is expected to produce a total of 373Mt of iron ore in 2022, down 4.8% year on year, primarily due to bad weather seen during the March Quarter. Production will grow significantly to 536Mt in 2040.

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Copper December 2022
Peru's Copper Supply

Peru holds reserves of 87Mt of contained copper, accounting for 10% of the world’s total reserves, ranking second globally. Peru is also the world’s second-largest producer of copper concentrate, producing approximately 13% of the total global copper concentrate supply.

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LNG October 2022
US Steps In to Fill Russia’s Empty Shoes

The United States’ continues its ascension into position as the globe’s leading LNG exporter. Partly, this is fueled by very cheap shale gas supply and vast reserves, and partly by a sudden need for a new gas supplier in Europe.

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Battery Metals October 2022
Australia’s Up and Coming Lithium Projects

Australia is hedging its bets on domestic lithium refining, with several new lithium hydroxide converter plants commissioned or under construction. Lithium is expected to become one of Australia’s most valuable export products, after iron ore, coal, and LNG.

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Copper October 2022
US Renewables Grows Fast, Lifting Copper

AME expects US demand for refined copper to grow 1.4% in 2022 to 1,797kt, before expanding another 1.5% in 2023 to 1,824kt. Our current forecasts are down from our previous forecast of a 2.7% increase in 2022 to 1,820kt, before expanding another 3.2% in 2023 to 1,878kt.

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Iron Ore October 2022
Canada’s Iron Ore Future

Canada is in a unique position in which it exports almost all of its domestically produced steel raw materials and imports pellets, coke, and coal from the US to satisfy most of its steelmaking needs. Canada’s iron ore supply is expected to reach 60Mt in 2022, up from 58.3Mt in 2021.

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Steel October 2022
Show Me The Money

AME’s crude steel production forecast for Germany in 2022 is 40.9Mt up 1.7% year on year. Although no major crude steel capacity expansions are planned in the short and medium term there will be significant investment towards the green steel transition.

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Battery Metals August 2022
Game Changing Solid State Batteries are Almost Here

Solid-state batteries (ASSBs) promising longer driving range, faster charging, and safer chemistry are almost here—but producing them on the scale needed to power millions of EVs won’t be easy.

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Copper August 2022
EV Revolution Fuels China's Copper Demand

China’s refined copper demand is expected to marginally decrease by 0.3% to 13,884kt in 2022. This is mainly driven by the softer-than-expected demand in the first half resulting from the Covid lockdowns, coupled with the drop in the country’s building sector.

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Gas in Transition (Oil) August 2022
Energiewende in the Midst

In the midst of the Energiewende (energy transition), Germany still relies heavily on imports of fossil fuels as its domestic resources are largely depleted or their extraction is too costly.

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Carbon August 2022
The EU’s Ambitious ‘Fit for 55’ Plan

The European Council has agreed on more ambitious targets for renewable energies. Under the “Fit for 55” package, the EU targets a net reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission by 55% by 2030. Fit for 55 will help the EU stay on track for its 2050 target of achieving climate neutrality.

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Nickel August 2022
Indonesia – One Country to Rule Them All

Indonesia is experiencing the fastest demand growth for both mined and finished nickel. Finished nickel demand surged from virtually zero in 2016 to almost 400kt within five years. While mined demand also saw a massive jump since the 2020 ore export ban.

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Iron Ore August 2022
China's Carbon Emissions Policy Promotes New Steelmaking Methods

Chinese steelmakers will be required to reach peak carbon emissions by 2030, the authorities announced in February 2022. The joint industry guideline was released by China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT), the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), and the Ministry of Ecology and Environment (MEE).

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LNG August 2022
Generating German Gas Gatherers

Since the beginning of the Ukraine conflict and the sanctions placed on Russia, Germany has been rapidly moving away from reliance on Russian pipeline gas. The nation’s federal energy agency, the Bundesnetzagentur, denied the approval of the US$1.2bn Nord Stream 2 project at the final stage after the pipeline completed.

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Metallurgical Coal August 2022
One Last Chance for Mozambique?

Mozambique was once expected to be the next big player on the global metallurgical coal market Metallurgical coal exports were expected to reach 40Mtpa, making Mozambique the third largest supplier of the metallurgical coal.

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Thermal Coal in Transition August 2022
Energiewende at a Crossroads

Germany has pledged to reach net zero by 2045 and has committed to a 65% emissions reduction below 1990 levels by 2030. The country has confirmed the 2030 coal exit date and stated plans to set a EUR60/t floor price for CO2.

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Aluminium August 2022
US Smelters are Hardly Lighting Up the World

Historical US primary aluminium production peaked at 4.7Mtpa in 1980 and accounted for around 30% of global supply. Since the peak, production has dramatically declined, with 2022 production currently forecast at 0.92Mt and ~1.3% of global production.

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Steel August 2022
Vietnam's Industry Demand

AME’s finished steel demand forecast for Vietnam in 2022 is 26.5Mt, up 5% year on year. Vietnam’s steel consuming industry is significantly skewed towards construction represent 93% of total finished steel demand. While other main industries of shipbuilding and automotive account for 4% and 2%, respectively of total finished demand.

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Carbon July 2022
The Effectiveness of ESG

Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) approaches have fundamentally restructured financial investment over the past 20 years. However, the effectiveness of ESG approaches is difficult to measure, hampered by a lack of strict, regulated, and unifying disclosure framework. Accusations of ‘greenwashing’ – claiming an ESG approach without any meaningful action, have become more frequent.

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Carbon June 2022
Decarbonisation Journey – Don’t Stop Believin’

The Earth recorded its highest ever daily average atmospheric CO2 concentration in May 2022. The Scripps Institute of Oceanography at the University of California reported 421.37ppm, compared to 418.95ppm in May 2021.

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Aluminium May 2022
Greening the Aluminium Value Chain - Alumina

The production of aluminium is an energy intensive process—so much so it is sometimes referred to as ‘solidified energy’. Carbon emissions are produced in aluminium smelting from the required electricity generation, along with the direct emissions from the reduction of alumina with a carbon anode.

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LNG May 2022
The Mean Green LNG Machine

LNG has a crucial role in the energy transition as a transportable, highly versatile fuel. The increasing use of LNG is needed to feed the world’s demand for energy. However, LNG is classified as a fossil fuel, and environmental concerns surround its use. The solution then, is to make LNG in an environmentally friendly manner. But how?

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Copper May 2022
Copper's Key Role in Electrification and Decarbonisation

Copper will continue to play a vital role for the global transition to electrification and net-zero emissions. It is a crucial component in renewable energy systems due to its properties, including conductivity, ductility, thermal efficiency, and recyclability.

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Battery Metals May 2022
Australia’s Lithium Powered Future

Australia, the world’s largest producer of hard-rock lithium spodumene, is accelerating lithium projects amid increasing market tightness, which has fuelled strong price momentum over the last 12 months.

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Thermal Coal in Transition April 2022
Europe’s Rekindled Affair with Coal

Once upon a time, Europe was on its gallant path towards decarbonization, clearly departing from coal to procure cleaner sources of energy. However, a global pandemic, record high gas prices and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have created the perfect conditions for the renaissance of coal in Europe’s energy generation.

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Copper April 2022
One Copper Continent to Rule Them All…

South America continues to dominate the world’s copper concentrate supply. Chile is forecast to produce 4.40Mt of copper in concentrate in 2022, up 4.6% from 4.21Mt in 2021.

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Gold April 2022
New Gold Projects Upside Potential

With gold prices hitting record highs and the rising demand over the last year, it is essential to picture the upcoming projects that will contribute to the next development phase. As post-pandemic demand for gold picks up, the metal proves its worth as a hard store of value when money supply is high, increasing expectations for the industry.

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Zinc April 2022
The Power Behind Zinc Production

There are two process routes for producing finished zinc: electrolytic and smelting. Both require large amounts of energy to produce the finished product. Around 90% of global zinc production is produced via the electrolytic process.

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Steel April 2022
Japanese Steel Producers Expand Abroad

Japan’s crude steel production is ranked number three in term of global production, surpassed only by China and India. Prior to the pandemic Japan’s average crude steel production was 109Mt per year from 2005 to 2018, with production peaking at 120Mt in 2007. Japan’s domestic steel demand is expected to level out due to the declining population and increased protectionism as Japanese customers seek to increase local steel production.

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Metallurgical Coal April 2022
New Met Coal Projects

Investments in new coal mining projects are being taking into consideration in several countries. Despite the current high coal prices, acceleration in announced or under construction projects are subject to environmental, social and governance considerations, particularly as an increasing number of countries pledge to reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050.

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Aluminium April 2022
Hoovered It Up, Now Spitting It Out

Since late 2019, China has been hoovering up aluminium to feed its apparently insatiable appetite from its downstream products sector. This has been partially spurred by the rapid bounce-back from the initial Covid-19 lockdowns, along with the country’s increasing difficulties powering ever-expanding primary production capacity amid the imposition of energy efficiency targets.

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LNG April 2022
Agreeing To See Other People

The Ukraine crisis has led to unprecedented economic sanctions on both individuals and Russia as a nation. While the current tightness in the energy market is putting pressure on European nations to continue purchasing Russian gas, announcements are already being made to ensure movement away from reliance upon Russian gas. Important to note is that companies are not being sanctioned, but rather the west is self-sanctioning on moral grounds.

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April 2022
Gas Price Forecasts Drive Fertiliser Prices

Higher natural gas and coal prices in the long-term could mean a shortage of ammonia and urea as prices reach levels high enough to cause shutdowns in plants in Europe. While the world is not likely to see a height of the JKM’s US$48/MMBtu for gas again any time soon as the spectre of the most recent energy crisis is going to loom for some time.

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Gas in Transition (Oil) April 2022
Crude Grade - Who Produces What?

European importers of Russian crude oil face big challenges if they want to continue buying Urals crude or refined products. A growing number of European companies across the energy and shipping sectors are making statements of intent to reduce or halt exposure to Russian oil and/or shipping. But in doing so, what are the substitutes?

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Nickel April 2022
Pricing, What Just Happened?

On the 8th of March 2022, the three-month nickel price suddenly soared to an unprecedented US$100,000/t on the London Metals Exchange (LME). This was more than double its closing price of US$42,995/t from the previous day. The sudden price movement saw the LME suspend trading of the contract.

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Iron Ore April 2022
Directly Reduced Iron Expanding

Direct reduced iron (DRI) supply is expanding across the global steel industry. The accelerating move towards reducing carbon emissions, and the increase in the capacity of DRI modules have renewed interest across the sector.

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Battery Metals April 2022
The Americas Look to Lithium

Countries in the Americas are looking to bring new lithium projects online to capitalise on soaring demand growth for lithium-ion batteries as global decarbonisation efforts ramp up. In the Americas, AME estimates that 315,386t of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) production capacity will come online from new sites between 2022 and 2024.

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Steel March 2022
The Carrot and the Stick

The EU has set a goal of a 55% reduction in carbon emissions by 2030 (compared to 1990) and net zero carbon emissions by 2050. A key part of achieving these goals is the European Union Emissions Trading System launched in 2005.

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Iron Ore March 2022
Iron Ore Supply from the CIS

The CIS is expected to produce 204Mt of iron ore in 2022, up 1.8% year on year, despite the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The iron ore production in the region comes mainly from three countries: Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan. Particularly, Russia accounts for an estimated 4.5% of the global iron ore, while Ukraine has a 3% share.

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Metallurgical Coal March 2022
Coal Development Policy for Alberta

Although Canada is currently one the most important metallurgical coal suppliers in the global market, in 1976 the province of Alberta established a policy for the development of its coal resources based on the principle that the people of Alberta own this resource.

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Thermal Coal in Transition March 2022
Asia Powering Up Coal

Despite the global focus on phasing down unabated coal, thermal coal remains a reliable and abundant source of energy for Southeast and South Asian countries.

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Aluminium March 2022
How Green is ‘Green’ Aluminium?

Increasing awareness and activity relating to greenhouse gas emissions have seen companies start to burnish their green/environmental responsibility credentials.

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LNG March 2022
Is LNG Europe’s Energy Panacea?

Over the last decade, LNG has become a favoured method of transporting energy, circumventing the need for long, expensive pipelines and enabling energy transport even between distant nations.

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Copper March 2022
Russian Supply at Risk?

The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has seen rising concerns about a copper supply shortage, as Russia is one of the world’s major copper producers and exporters.

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Battery Metals March 2022
The Race to Develop Next-Gen Batteries

Automakers and battery suppliers are racing to develop the next generation of batteries that are cheaper, more powerful and charge faster.

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Oil Refineries March 2022
European Refineries Exposure to Russian Crude

Oil prices surged to the highest since 2014 this month, partly fuelled by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Any scenario in which westbound flows from the world’s second-largest crude exporter slump would have a significant impact on what is an already tight oil market.

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Nickel March 2022
The Road to Greener Nickel

There has been an increasing push for sustainability in the mining industry in recent years, and investors and companies alike have started to rely on and emphasise Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) factors as part of their evaluation of operational performance.

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Gas in Transition (Oil) March 2022
Focus on Russian Crude Oil Exports

An invasion into the Ukraine by Russian troops on 24th February 2022 has not yet resulted in a loss of oil supply to the market. Prices nevertheless surged by US$8/bbl to US$105/bbl following the news, on expectations that sanctions against Russia would cripple energy exports.

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Zinc March 2022
ESG Concerns in the Zinc Industry

Climate change and carbon emissions are the most prominent ESG issues facing the zinc industry, but there is also a strong focus on other environmental issues, including air and water pollution, waste management and water scarcity. Social issues include issues such as employment diversity and equal opportunity.

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Gold March 2022
Risky Times for Russian Miners

The economic fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is creating challenges for the country’s gold miners, even as the gold price has jumped, as sanctions wipe out billions of dollars of investment in the country.

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Steel February 2022
Chinese Steel Imports & Exports

China’s steel exports for 2021 were 66.9Mt, up 24.6% year on year. The global steel imbalance favoured China during the steel shortage at the beginning of 2021. China pounced on the opportunity it offered during the first six months of 2021, with average monthly steel exports of 6.23Mt. This represents a 30.2% jump from the same period of last year.

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Battery Metals February 2022
EV Boom Set to Continue

Global sales of passenger electric cars soared to 6.6m in 2021, more than doubling from a year earlier, even as the overall car market stagnated on the back of supply-chain disruptions. The share of electric cars jumped to almost 9% of the overall car market last year, compared to 4.1% in 2020 and 2.5% in 2019.

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Nickel February 2022
HPALs – Upping the Pressure

Most mined nickel is derived from one of two types of ore deposits—magmatic sulphide or laterite. Sulphide deposits are formed by magma from the Earth’s mantle ascending into the crust and crystallising iron-magnesium-nickel rich mafic and ultramafic rocks containing nickel-rich sulphide minerals. Lateritic deposits are formed from the weathering of ultramafic rocks, are typically near-surface and are typically found in tropical climates.

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Metallurgical Coal February 2022
China’s Import Restrictions

Australia’s ties with top trade partner China embittered in 2020 when Canberra publicly called for an enquiry into the origins of the coronavirus. Diplomatic retaliations have since followed, including a raft of trade measures imposed by China on Australian metallurgical coal exports.

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Aluminium February 2022
Why the Price is Not The Price

Outside China, the benchmark global aluminium price is the London Metal Exchange’s (LME) Aluminium cash contract price, the price per ton for a 99.7% unalloyed aluminium ingot (or similar) for re-melting.

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Gas in Transition (Oil) February 2022
Global Oil Storage

Global oil storage acts as the balancing point between supply and demand. During periods when supply exceeds demand, crude oil and petroleum products can be stored for future use. For example, in the economic downturn of late 2008, the unexpected drop in world demand led to record crude oil inventories in the US and other OECD countries.

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Gold February 2022
Central Bank Gold Purchases and Sales

In 2021, central banks around the world added 463t in total to their gold holdings, an 82% increase in purchases from the decade-low of 255t recorded last year, bringing central banks’ total reserves to almost 35,600t.

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Copper February 2022
Environmental Battles for New Mines

As the world transitions to lower fossil fuel dependence, demand for copper is expected to continue to grow, given that renewable energy technologies contain up to five times as much copper as their fossil fuel-based counterparts.

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Thermal Coal in Transition February 2022
The COP26 Commitments

The United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26) was held in Glasgow in November 2021 under the co-presidency of the UK and Italy, with over 190 members participating to take collaborative action on climate change. The main issues discussed at the conference included climate change mitigation, the reduction of greenhouse gases emissions, climate financing for developing countries, and phasing out of coal, among other issues.

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Iron Ore February 2022
Iron Ore Products Lower BF Emissions

Steel is manufactured by two main process routes. One is the integrated steelmaking process featuring the blast furnace/basic oxygen furnace (BF/BOF), where iron ore is the major source of iron units; the other method is electric steelmaking based on the electric arc furnace (EAF), where steel scrap or direct reduced iron (DRI) are the major iron feedstock materials.

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Hydrogen February 2022
Hydrogen on the Move

Hydrogen is the energy market’s new player on the block, attracting attention for its exciting potential, variable supply sources and cleanliness as a fuel. Hydrogen has incredible energy density by weight at 120MJ/kg, with the potential to revolutionise energy storage and supply to turn one of the key global polluters into an emissions-free industry.

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Battery Metals January 2022
China: The Battery Giant

China wants 20% of new car sales to be electric by 2025, with this share doubling to 40% by 2030, according to an action plan issued by the country's state council in October. With EV sales set to soar, the country’s demand for batteries is expected to skyrocket.

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Aluminium January 2022
2021 Year in Review

Surging demand on the back of post-pandemic economic stimulus from China has seen aluminium metal prices surge over most of 2021. China has continued on its merry way as a net importer of the material.

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Copper January 2022
2021 Year in Review

Copper prices soared in 2021 as the global economy rebounded post-pandemic on the back of the global vaccine rollout, which prompted an easing of restrictions and higher economic activity. Copper prices were also powered by hefty government stimulus, particularly China's huge infrastructure spending, as well as market tightness and the green push.

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Gold January 2022
2021 Year in Review

Gold started the year high, supported by concerns about the long-term ramifications of the Covid-19 pandemic and associated supply chain disruptions. The Asia gold spot price in January averaged US$1892.59/oz, while the European gold spot price averaged US$1865.70/oz.

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Iron Ore January 2022
2021 Year in Review

AME expects the iron ore price to average US$161/t over 2021, representing a yearly increase of 47.7% from US$109/t in 2020. The 65% and 58% iron ore spot prices are estimated at US$187/t and US$129/t in 2021, up 53.3% and 32.6% year on year, respectively.

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LNG January 2022
A Rising Tide

2021 has been a turbulent year for LNG. After the initial recovery from the brutal shock of Covid-19, there was great optimism for a return to an economic “mostly normal”, with a few caveats.

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Metallurgical Coal January 2022
2021 Year in Review

During 2021, the global coal industry not only recovered from the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic, but proved that despite the worldwide negative outlook, coal burnt hotter than ever. Steel mills around the world ramped up and coal trade flows adjusted to accommodate China’s import ban on Australian metallurgical coal.

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Nickel January 2022
2021 Year in Review

Nickel prices started 2021 on the up, at ~US$16,600/t, as supply continued to be built out in Indonesia and hoovered up by China—largely from Chinese-owned and operated capacity developments in the country—to fill the gap left by Indonesia’s raw ore export ban, which came into place at the start of 2020.

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Gas in Transition (Oil) January 2022
2021 Year in Review

The year 2021 brought global economic growth following the 2020 Covid-19 caused downturn, largely tied to the development and global distribution of Covid-19 vaccines. High energy prices and supply chain pressures spurred record-high inflation and a growing energy crunch.

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Steel January 2022
2021 Year in Review

In 2021, average monthly HRC prices experienced a ‘tale of two cities’. US prices increased significantly during the 11 months to November, ending at US$1,756/t, up 108.3% since the beginning of the year.

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Thermal Coal in Transition January 2022
2021 Year in Review

During 2021, the global coal industry not only recovered from the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic, but proved that despite the worldwide negative outlook, coal burnt hotter than ever.

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Aluminium December 2021
The Power and the Aluminium

Often described as ‘solid electricity’, aluminium takes ~14kWh of power to produce 1kg of metal. If the aluminium smelting industry was a country, it would be the fifth-largest power consumer in the world.

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Copper December 2021
A Challenging Year for Chinese Smelters

China’s electricity generation has been hampered in recent months by tight coal supplies, surging coal prices, and toughening emissions standards. China has been unable to buy coal from Australia due to an import ban, while supplies from its biggest supplier, Indonesia, have been impacted by persistent rainfall.

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Gold December 2021
Gold and E-Waste

The value of gold in electronic waste (e-waste) could stand at around US$50bn by 2030. In 2016, it was estimated that around 16Moz of gold was thrown away in 44.7Mt of e-waste. In 2030, it is estimated that 74Mt of e-waste will be produced globally, which would translate to 26Moz of gold.

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Iron Ore December 2021
Fate of Australia’s New Suppliers – Are Their Costs Low Enough to Survive?

With the 62% Fe iron ore price declining significantly to US$100/t in September from highs of over US$230/t in May and expected to remain weak beyond 2021, several junior iron ore miners in Australia are facing pressure and have had to revise mine plans.

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LNG December 2021
Torches in the Dark

China’s consumption of LNG has only grown over the last several years, and Chinese import demand promises to overtake that of current world leader Japan within the decade. AME currently pegs China’s maximum regasification and receival capacity at 80Mtpa, though the nation only consumed 68Mt in 2020.

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Metallurgical Coal December 2021
Is US Coal Vanishing?

Coal remains on a structural decline in the United States although 2021 is expected to be the first year since 2013 that consumption increases. US Metallurgical coal exports are forecast to make an increasing contribution to the export market with 36.5Mt in 2021 and 41.7Mt in 2022.

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Nickel December 2021
Possibilities Are Not Quite Endless

The recent history of nickel has had a distinctly Indonesian focus. This is hardly surprising given the spate of developments seen in the country. While initially the focus was predominately on shipping raw ore to China, investment and development activity shifting the focus to domestic downstream processing has been in overdrive since the Indonesian government brought forward a raw ore export ban to the start of 2020.

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Gas in Transition (Oil) December 2021
Europe’s Gas Supply Crisis

For months, Europe has been gripped by rising energy prices, specifically rising natural gas prices, due to constrained natural gas supply, and it is now facing a full-on crisis.

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Steel December 2021
Sailing to Victory

According to India’s National Steel Policy (NSP) 2017, the country’s total crude steel capacity and total crude steel demand/production are projected to be 300Mt and 255Mt, respectively, by 2030-2031. Within the same timeframe, India’s NSP expects domestic steel consumption to reach 160kg per capita.

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Thermal Coal in Transition December 2021
The 2030 German Odyssey

Germany has led European renewable investments throughout the last decade, aiming to fully transform its power sector. However, Germany’s decarbonisation plan does not seem to be consistent with its large coal fleet closure timeline.

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Zinc December 2021
Zinc and a Greener, Cleaner, Sustainable Future

Global leaders have committed to making a concerted effort to end their reliance on fossil fuels by 2030 and solidified their commitments to carbon neutrality, with most nations aiming to reach net zero emissions by 2050 and China by 2060.

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Iron Ore November 2021
New DR Pellet Supply

DR pellet is an essential input for producing direct reduced iron (DRI) a highly pure form of iron which is often used as a feedstock, along with steel scrap, to produce steel in an electric arc furnace (EAF).

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Gold November 2021
Renewables in Gold Mining

With the intensifying global focus on greenhouse gas emissions and the existential risk posed by climate change, miners are coming under increasing pressure to decarbonise their operations.

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Copper November 2021
South American Supply Shining Amid Political Uncertainties

As the world’s largest copper producer, Chile is forecast to produce approximately 25% of the world’s copper in concentrate in 2021 and 2022.

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Nickel November 2021
Stainless Still Stands

Having historically been the largest demand source for nickel, the stainless-steel sector still dominates global nickel demand, and it is expected to continue to do so.

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Zinc November 2021
Global Zinc Supply Disruptions

Zinc producers are currently facing numerous challenges to keeping a stable supply. Globally, there has been huge demand for energy as economies recover from the Covid-19 pandemic.

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Aluminium November 2021
A Fine Balance

With aluminium production being the demand source for ~90% of alumina, and due to some difficulties with the hydrophilic powder’s long-term storage, the global market for smelter-grade alumina is generally in close balance.

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Steel November 2021
Middle East Supply

AME expects the Middle East’s crude steel production for 2021 and 2022 to be 48Mt, up 8.3%, and 53.3Mt, up 11%, respectively, year on year.

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Gas in Transition (Oil) November 2021
Australian CSG – Key to Addressing the Power Shortfall

In several recent announcements, the Australian Federal Government has demonstrated its intention to have gas, particularly coal seam gas, play a central role in Australia’s future energy mix.

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LNG November 2021
The United Surplus of America

The United States has been an energy-hungry nation since it was founded, but it has regularly exported energy as well. The nation’s forests, coal, oil, and gas fields have shaped the world around it as technological innovation has supplied ever-expanding ways to exploit the abundance of resources the nation finds itself blessed with.

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Oil Refineries November 2021
Refining Future in Chemicals not Fuels

Crude oil has been used to produce transportation fuel for many decades. However, market factors may now make it necessary for organisations to consider oil-to-chemical complexes to maintain a competitive edge in today’s global market.

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Thermal Coal in Transition November 2021
Moving Beyond Coal

Thermal coal has been an important source of energy in most industrialised countries for several decades. Global reliance on this fossil fuel for electricity generation remains high. However, coal accounts for over 40% of global carbon emissions, with coal-fired power plants being the largest contributor to the rise in emissions in recent years.

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Metallurgical Coal November 2021
Alternative Metallurgical Coal Substitutes: A Fairy Tale?

On average, over one billion tonnes of metallurgical coal are used per year to produce most of the 1.7 billion tonnes of crude steel manufactured globally. In the last decade, the steel industry has focused its attention on the decarbonisation of steel production in a try to make renewable alternatives cost-effective.

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Battery Metals November 2021
Europe Prepares for New Battery Era

The EU wants at least 30m electric vehicles on the region's roads by 2030—a massive increase from the 3.3m in 2020. The transition to EVs and away from internal combustion engine cars, which the bloc wants to phase out by 2035, will require a vast number of batteries, even if the most ambitious targets are not reached.

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Battery Metals October 2021
United States of Giga

While China is currently winning the race to manufacture lithium-ion batteries with 93 gigafactories, the US is racing to build up and expand capacity to grab market share as the EV sector is set for rapid growth. AME expects annual production of EVs will grow from 3m in 2020 to more than 11m by 2025.

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Aluminium October 2021
Struggling to Keep it Up

As it has emerged from pandemic lockdowns in mid-2020 and through 2021, China has increasingly struggled to meet its surging demand for primary aluminium with domestic production. The situation has come to a head with aluminium prices surging over the period. The primary ex-China index hit the US$3,000/t mark in intra-day trade recently and has been sitting around US$2,900/t. These prices have been dragged along by the high prices within China creating an arbitrage and the country becoming a vortex for available physical metal around the globe.

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October 2021
Global Battle for Fuel

Global risks are seemingly mounting, with an energy crisis, inflation and China growth concerns at the forefront.

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Metallurgical Coal October 2021
Where is the Southeast Asian New Steel Capacity?

As the global energy transition gathers attention, the steel industry explores its opportunities in the decarbonisation plan. The surge in global steel production reflects a strengthened economic recovery despite repeated outbreaks of Covid-19.

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Gold October 2021
Gold Mining Mergers and Acquisitions

Mergers and acquisitions are likely to increase in importance in the precious metals sector, including in the gold mining sector. In future, miners will be faced with declining average ore grades and ores of increasing complexity, leading to increased operating costs, while the price of gold is not expected to rise at the same rate.

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Iron Ore October 2021
Magnetite Mines in Australia

Australia has the largest reserves of iron ore, located in the Hamersley Basin of the Pilbara region of Western Australia. The primary haematite ores produced are the dominant iron ores mined and exported. Haematite ores require minimal processing before transport to customers (direct shipping ore or DSO), such as iron ore from BHP, Rio Tinto and FMG.

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Thermal Coal in Transition October 2021
South Africa Supply

While the world focuses on climate change issues and environmentally sustainable alternatives to phase out coal as an energy resource, the prospects for South African coal production remain strong for the coming decades.

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Copper October 2021
Copper’s Low-Carbon Future

Worldwide climate change has been accelerating in response to accumulating greenhouse gas emissions. As a number of countries have made commitments to move towards a net-zero emissions economy, copper companies have also set ambitious emissions targets, making efforts to stay ahead of the curve.

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Nickel October 2021
Nickel Carbon Intensity

Nickel is an essential alloying element which is predominantly used in the iron and steel industries. According to the Nickel Institute, more than two-thirds of nickel produced globally is consumed in the production of stainless steel.

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Zinc October 2021
New Global Galvanising Capacity

While demand for zinc has not shown as much growth as that for other base metal industries, it remains at a slow, steady increase. Galvanised steel output remains the principal driver of zinc demand, with galvanised steel demand seeing an increase due to the growing market for electric vehicles as well as many companies targeting this market as it is a premium product, lighter and stronger, and good for construction. This is driving a rise in galvanising capacity growth projects, particularly in Asia.

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Steel October 2021
US Supply Including New Projects

In the US, the emerging themes of steel tariffs and self-reliance have been prominent during the past few years. With Covid-19 in the rear-view mirror, US steel producers are embracing the ‘new steel economy’ of green steel and electric vehicles (EVs).

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Gas in Transition (Oil) October 2021
US Shale – Disciplined & Leaner

History shows that those who underestimate the US shale sector do so at their peril. That hasn’t stopped many experts from writing off shale, believing that low prices, high well-decline rates, and investor demand for capital efficiency have effectively neutered shale’s growth potential.

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LNG October 2021
Europe’s Gas a Sparse Market

The European market is growing investments in Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), as increasing pressure on emissions and energy infrastructure encourages the use of LNG as a transition fuel. Rising concerns around energy security have also spurred significant advancement of support for LNG imports.

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Gas in Transition (Oil) September 2021
Southeast Asia’s Stagnanting Supply

A growing imbalance between rising demand and stagnant or falling production is gradually pushing Southeast Asia towards becoming a net importer of crude oil and natural gas.

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Metallurgical Coal September 2021
Mongolia Left Out of Coal Supply Chain

Mongolia’s metallurgical coal production skyrocketed in 2016 with output of 25.6Mt, rising more than 103% from the previous year. Since then, Mongolia has become an important player in the export market, benefitting from its close location to China that allows truck transportation. However, the country's production dropped to 19.5Mtpa last year, on the impact of the pandemic.

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Thermal Coal in Transition September 2021
Hunter Valley Coalfield Seams—Geology and Quality

Hunter Valley Coalfield is located within the Sydney-Gunnedah Basin. Almost all major coal resources in NSW are located in the Sydney-Gunnedah Basin, which extends from the south of Wollongong to the north of Newcastle and is 500km and 150km wide. Coal measures of this basin are bituminous in rank and Permian in age. These vast measures contain a wide variety of coal, from high quality thermal coal to low volatile semi-hard coking coals. There are five major coalfields within the basin: Hunter, Newcastle, Southern, Western and Gunnedah.

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LNG September 2021
China’s Import Importance

China’s importance to the global LNG market can’t be understated. As the world’s second largest LNG importer, largest energy consumer and a rapid growth market, China is poised to take the place of the largest LNG importer from Japan this decade.

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Steel September 2021
Conversion of Steel Mills from BF to DRI/EAF

Several steel producers have already announced their plans for converting their BF operations to the less carbon intensive DRI/EAF technology. For the first half of 2021, many steel producers have been reporting record high revenues and operating EBITDA. The extraordinary financial results are driven by high steel prices, supply constraint issues and unprecedented government stimulus. With the growing rise of accounting for scope 1 and 2 carbon emissions, perhaps this windfall will accelerate growth in more DRI/EAF projects.

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Zinc September 2021
New Zinc Projects

While demand for zinc does not show as much growth as demand for other metals, it remains steady. With many projects put on hold at the beginning of 2020 due to the pandemic and zinc prices falling, we are seeing projects being restarted with many due to come online within the next five years.

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Gold September 2021
Technological Developments in Gold Mining

While the global demand for gold is expected to grow over the long term, the global mined supply is expected to peak in 2022 before steadily decreasing as ore grades decline and large mining projects reach the end of their lives. The price of gold is not expected to rise at the same rate as demand, so miners will be incentivised to find more efficient and cost-effective ways of extracting gold from this lower-grade ore.

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Oil Refineries September 2021
China’s New Wave “Teapot 2.0”

China’s newest oil refiners are thriving by aligning themselves with President Xi Jinping’s environmental vision, expanding even as their older state-controlled rivals and several other private “Teapot 1.0” refineries have been reined in by Beijing. These newcomers, known as “Teapot 2.0”, are benefiting because they are fitting into Xi’s push for cleaner industries and greater energy efficiency.

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Battery Metals September 2021
Electrifying Logistics & Fleets

Cities are electrifying public transport to tackle air pollution in densely populated urban areas and meet net-zero commitments. Around 10,500 global cities have adopted targets to reduce their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and 800 have committed to net-zero emissions.

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Iron Ore September 2021
DR Pellet Supply on Seaborne Market

DR pellet is essential for producing direct reduced iron (DRI) which is a highly pure form of iron, and is often used as a feedstock along with steel scrap to produce steel in the electric arc furnace (EAF). DR pellet has a typical Fe content above 66%, higher than is typical of blast furnace (BF) pellets.

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Aluminium September 2021
Aluminium Industry Profile: Southeast Asia

Southeast Asia is home to significant bauxite reserves which have, until relatively recently, mostly been exported as raw ore to China as the country grew domestic refining capacity to meet its smelter capacity developments. China’s alumina refineries have increasingly looked to external sources of bauxite due to the restrictive processing costs of its domestic diasporic reserves. With significant bauxite reserves, prior to export bans, both Indonesia and Malaysia became significant suppliers on the seaborne bauxite market.

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Copper September 2021
Copper Smelter Capacity Additions

China, the world's largest copper producer and consumer, is continuing to bring new capacity online through new smelters, refineries and expansion projects. New supply additions are being supported by the surging demand from the traditional consumption sectors including power, manufacturing, and construction. Demand is also being driven by new and sustainable energy infrastructure development as the country aims to peak carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060

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Steel August 2021
Southeast Asia's New Steel Projects

One of the fastest growing regions for steelmaking capacity is Southeast Asia. This expansion is being driven by the growing middle class, urbanisation, and government policies to enable domestic steelmakers to be less depended on steel imports. New steel projects in Malaysia, Philippines, and Indonesia are expected to be approximately 16.6Mt, 20.5Mt, and 27Mt, respectively.

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Zinc August 2021
What Use is a Zincing Ship?

Zinc’s uses are many given its effectiveness as a protective agent, whether as part of an alloy or as a passivating protection. Zinc is not used as a metal industrially, due to comparatively poorer physical properties than steel. However, once alloyed, zinc can add significant corrosion resistance, high impact strength at an affordable price.

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Thermal Coal in Transition August 2021
Coal Power Phase Out Plans by Country

In the years following the landmark Paris climate agreement, many countries have made progress in phasing out coal-fired power, but nowhere near as fast as the commitment to keep temperatures below 2C requires, and much of the progress has been offset by even larger planned expansion of the domestic thermal coal sector in China.

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Nickel August 2021
From Out of Nowhere

From a relatively insignificant finished nickel producer in 2014, to expecting to have overtaken China’s production volumes this year, Indonesia has been on quite the rise.

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Copper August 2021
Copper Concentrate Trade Flows

Global copper reserves are estimated at 870Mt of contained copper, according to the USGS. Chile has the largest copper reserves, accounting of 23% of the world’s total (200Mt). Peru is tied with Australia for second place, with reserves of 87Mt (10% of the total). Other countries with sizeable reserves include Russian (61Mt), the US (51Mt) and Indonesia (28Mt).

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Battery Metals August 2021
A Solid Case for Solid-State Batteries

Solid-state batteries have been touted as having higher energy density, shorter charging times and costing less than traditional lithium-ion batteries. Are they the answer to mass market adoption of electric vehicles?

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Iron Ore August 2021
Direct Reduced Iron Expands

Direct reduced iron (DRI) plants are expanding in the global steel industry. The accelerating movement towards reducing carbon emissions, and the increase in the capacity of DRI modules have renewed interest in the sector. In addition, hydrogen reduction as a production facility has been also attracted focus. The DRI production process has been introduced mainly in oil-producing countries. Now it is spreading to other regions who are looking to slash their carbon emissions.

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Gold August 2021
Gold Growth Plans

Robust gold prices and the precious metal's assured role as a safe haven is encouraging miners to invest in their operations to halt output declines, extend mine life and grow production. AME expects gold demand to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 0.6% over the medium-term to 151,303koz by 2025. We expect mine gold supply to slide at a CAGR of 3.8% to 94,115koz over this period.

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Gas in Transition (Oil) August 2021
Future of European Supply

Europe is one of the smallest oil and gas producing continents in the world, only beating Oceania. While output in most European countries is now at a historic lows, exploration for new sources of both conventional and unconventional oil and gas is ongoing. The effort, however, is being increasingly hampered by the maturity of many of the conventional plays and producer country goals to become "climate neutral" in the coming decades.

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Metallurgical Coal August 2021
Canada Key Beneficiary from China’s War on Australian Coal

The Canadian metallurgical coal market has significantly benefited since China slapped an unofficial ban on Australian coal exports in October 2020. Exports from Canada could partly fill Australian coal gap in Chinese demand as around 90% of Canadian exports have traditionally been sent to non-Chinese markets.

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Aluminium August 2021
Where the Bauxite At?

Surging aluminium demand is pulling the whole value chain along with it. As the centre of aluminium and alumina production, China is predominately the focus of capacity and production developments. However, China is struggling to meet its demand for bauxite—the raw material of the industry—from domestic resources.

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LNG August 2021
LNG Technology & Emissions

As the energy transition gathers momentum, countries and corporates are racing ahead to announce net-zero pledges and decarbonisation targets. Countries with carbon neutrality pledges now account for 75% of LNG demand. The list includes some of Australia’s largest LNG customers—China, Japan and South Korea.

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LNG July 2021
LNG Carbon Capture & Storage

Greenhouse gas emission (GHG) associated with LNG have come under increased scrutiny from governments and market participants in recent years. Global LNG trade has more than tripled since the beginning of the century, while GHG emissions from LNG supply and end use had reached an estimated 1.25 Gt CO2-eq (~17% of emissions from natural gas) by 2020.

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Gas in Transition (Oil) July 2021
Oil & Gas Industry Focus on CCUS

Carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) has become one of the major talking points in energy as countries around the globe struggle to reduce carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions and fulfill commitments to reduce production of greenhouse gasses.

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Nickel July 2021
Wants What It Doesn’t Have

The US has a long history of manufacturing vehicles—dominating the sector for over 100 years—and its ambitions to become a major player in the nascent electric vehicle (EV) industry will see changes in the raw materials the country is trying to get its hands on.

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Zinc July 2021
Controlling Carbon Costs

Not all energy sources are created equal. Carbon costs are a looming problem for the environmentally conscious miner, and carbon emissions studies are still a relatively young science. The use of fossil fuels, mainstay of global economies for decades, is beginning to suffer from changing attitudes towards carbon emissions, climate change, and environmental pollution.

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Battery Metals July 2021
Lithium's Backbone: South America & Australia

Lithium operations in South America and Australia are looking to ramp up supply over the medium-term to meet a massive uptick in demand for li-ion batteries as countries get serious about decarbonisation. AME expects lithium demand to grow at a massive compound annual growth rate of 24% through 2024, reaching 654,364kt.

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Steel July 2021
The Steel Industry's Carbon Emission Intensity

The two main methods of steelmaking vary greatly in terms of carbon emissions. The typical blast furnace and/or basic oxygen furnace (BF-BOF) has a variety of raw materials such as iron ore, metallurgical coal, limestone and recycled steel. This method also includes the preparation of raw material in the likes of pelletisation and the sintering of iron ore. However, the majority of CO2 emissions in the steelmaking process is derived from the iron ore reduction process in the blast furnace.

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Thermal Coal in Transition July 2021
Global Recovery a Catalyst for M&A Activity

Encouraged by thermal coal price growth, miners are reviewing expansion plans and raising capital for new projects and acquisitions. M&A activity is increasing, as are valuations and divestment.

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Iron Ore July 2021
Decarbonization Drives China's Pellet Demand

China officially announced that its carbon dioxide emissions will peak by 2030 before striving to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. According to statistics from the International Energy Agency, global energy-related carbon emissions in 2020 totalled 31.5Bt, with China holding the largest global share at 9.45Bt. China's steel carbon emissions account for more than 60% of global steel carbon emissions, and the steel industry's carbon emissions account for about 15% of the country's total emissions, according to the China Metallurgical Association.

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Copper July 2021
Miners Speed Up Constructions of New Copper Projects

Demand for copper is expected to keep rising over the coming years as the global economy electrifies and decarbonises. Miners are speeding up construction of their new copper projects, although they have continued to face coronavirus-related disruptions. After two consecutive years of declines, mainly due to the pandemic-related disruptions, particularly in South America, AME forecasts mined copper supply to grow 3.6% year on year to 21.15Mt in 2021 to and a further 7.3% in 2022 to 22.71Mt. Operations are expected to be less hindered by the pandemic, while new projects ramp up.

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Metallurgical Coal July 2021
Where are the New Mines?

Investment in metallurgical coal mining projects is heavily focused on the world’s top five producers. These export-oriented developments comprise nearly 64Mtpa of coal mining capacity. These ventures have been approved and have obtained final investment decision or are already under construction, with the majority located in Australia and Russia.

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Aluminium July 2021
Supplying for Self Sufficiency

The ‘Make in India’ initiative aims to grow India’s domestic capability in manufacturing for its 1.4 billion residents. For aluminium, that means self-sufficiency and vertical integration across the entire value chain from bauxite to finished products. A persistent issue inhibiting success is India’s challenges in trying to develop its large domestic bauxite reserves to secure the required raw materials—over 30Mtpa of additional bauxite supply capacity may be required if proposed projects are realised.

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Oil Refineries July 2021
Crude Oil Refining

In the coming decades, the shifting demand for fossil-based transportation fuels will be the defining factor that will transform existing oil refining capacity. Future refineries will be equipped with flexible technology solutions that can enable them to make a wide variety of chemicals and intermediates.

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Gold July 2021
Gold Supply Upside

Gold is trading at around US$1,800/oz, while nearly 10% lower than last year's spike to record levels fuelled by the pandemic, it is still well above the five-year average. Higher prices are encouraging investment and output, which has been sliding over the last few years. AME's base case of new projects coming online over the medium-term through 2025 includes 16 projects—with two each in Asia, Africa, Europe and Australia, and four in both North America and Latin America.

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LNG June 2021
Long Term Supply - Qatar

Qatar aims to be the world’s largest producer of LNG for at least the next two decades, capitalising on rising demand as the world transitions from oil and coal to cleaner energy. The world’s top LNG supplier, Qatar’s state owned Qatar Petroleum (QP), has committed to development of the first phase of its North Field LNG project expansion. The investment entails a four-train expansion with a total capacity of 32Mtpa named North Field East, that has been touted as the largest single LNG project sanctioned in history.

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