Pressure mounts on the world's biggest carbon emitters.

Even though most countries submitted new or updated climate plans this year ahead of the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow, the combined result still leaves the world on track for 2.7C of warming by century's end, according to the UN.

The 2015 Paris accord goal is to limit global warming to well below 2C since pre-industrial times, and ideally to no more than 1.5C. Global warming is estimated by scientists to be at 1.1C already. The UN's latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report said the Paris targets "will be beyond reach" by 2040 without immediate, rapid and large-scale reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.

Exports are also facing the prospect of carbon border adjustments, with the EU publishing its proposal in July, which is also gaining traction among Democrats in the US. This raises the possibility of the formation of a carbon-zero trade bubble, while countries lagging behind their emissions reduction targets may be penalised over the long term. Meanwhile, climate risk assessments for listed companies are looking increasingly likely to become mandatory over the medium-term. The EU, the UK, the US and China have all recently indicated their support for standardised climate disclosure measures.

A striking spate of extreme weather this year, including record heatwaves in North America and deadly flooding in Germany and China, has brought the impact of a shifting climate to a new level of consciousness. This could lead voters in democracies to urge their governments to take a tougher line on climate change. The Biden administration in August announced a US$3.5bn injection to help states protect against the effects of climate change, as disasters continue to hit the country. The announcement is the latest example of federal money going toward climate resilience at levels that would have previously been hard to imagine.

On a brighter note, there are a number of positive steps being taken in climate change mitigation. Wind and solar power capacity additions have experienced exponential growth over the past two decades, while sales of electric vehicles have also risen rapidly since 2015. Around 10,500 global cities have adopted targets to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions and 800 have committed to net-zero emissions to tackle air pollution in densely populated urban areas and meet net-zero commitments.

As the global economy transitions to a lower carbon future, policies are expected to be strengthened to speed up the deployment of clean and efficient energy technologies. Mandates and standards are needed to drive consumer spending and industry investment into the most efficient technologies. Targets and competitive auctions can enable wind and solar to accelerate the electricity sector transition. Fossil fuel subsidy phase-outs, carbon pricing and other market reforms can help achieve appropriate price signals. If net-zero targets are to be met, governments must lead the way in planning and incentivising the massive infrastructure investment needed, including smart transmission and distribution grids.

Currently, 64 separate carbon pricing initiatives cover about 21.5% of emissions globally, according to figures from the World Bank. In September, the EU carbon price hit EUR65/t for the first time, more than doubling the cost of polluting in the bloc compared to pre-pandemic levels as investors bet on the EU coming good on its 2050 net zero target. However, Brussels estimates the price will have to keep upwards of EUR60/t (US$71) to meet the revised goal of a 55% cut in CO2 emissions by 2030, based on 1990 levels.

China released its climate road map ahead of the UN's COP26 climate summit in Glasgow, which includes steps to expand hydropower and energy storage. The new action plan repeats the country's targets to bring wind and solar capacity to 1,200GW by the end of the decade. According to the plan, new hydroelectric dams will also be built on the upper reaches of the Yangtze, Mekong and Yellow rivers. China will also make more use of new-generation nuclear technology, including small-scale offshore reactors, it said.

From 2025, all new buildings will be built according to green standards. By 2030, 40% of new vehicles, including ships and cars, will be powered by clean energy, according to the policy document released by China's State Council. China is planning to peak carbon emissions before 2030, but the blueprint did not include detail on how much emissions would increase before 2030 and how fast they would decline afterwards.

In the US, climate change is back in the budget. In the US, climate change is back in the budget. Earlier this year, Mr Biden set a target of cutting US greenhouse gas emissions from 2005 levels by at least 50% by 2030. This involves generating 80% clean electricity by 2030 and 100% by 2035.

President Biden's US$1.2tn bipartisan infrastructure bill, which was signed into law in November, includes US$550bn in new spending over five years. The bill carries an implicit, bipartisan acknowledgment that the country is ill prepared for a worsening climate. It includes US$65bn to update the nation's electricity grid so it can carry more renewable energy, US$46bn in climate resilience spending, US$7.5bn to construct electric vehicle charging stations, US$7.5bn for zero-emissions buses and ferries, and US$15bn for removing lead pipes.

Meanwhile, President Biden's bigger US$1.75tn Build Back Better bill, includes US$555bn for climate change programs, which would easily make it the largest climate change law in US history. The key piece of the new climate spending is about US$320bn in tax incentives for producers and purchasers of renewable energy. Buyers of electric vehicles would also receive up to US$12,500 in tax credits. The bill, however, is likely to change as it moves through the evenly divided Senate, where Republicans are unanimously opposed to the measure and Democrats need every vote.

New standards for US vehicle emissions were announced in August in a push to phase out gasoline-powered cars. The new regulations, which would apply to vehicles in the model year 2023, means vehicles would need to achieve 38.2 miles per gallon (mpg). In 2012, former President Obama set the target at 36.8mpg, but the Trump administration slashed it to 32.2mpg. 'There's a vision of the future that is now beginning to happen, a future of the automobile industry that is electric," said Mr Biden, when announcing the plan on August 5.

Mr Biden also signed executive order that calls for the government to try to ensure that half of all vehicles sold in the US be electric by 2030. Gasoline-powered cars and trucks are the largest single source of greenhouse gases produced in the US, accounting for 28% of the country's total. Meanwhile, the EU has announced that all new cars sold will be emissions-free by 2035.

Further rules on methane, a potent greenhouse gas released during oil and gas production, are due this year. "We'll be really pushing for deep emission reduction from that," said Michael Regan, the head of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), without disclosing details. "We've taken a look at all of the rollbacks during the previous administration, and where science was not applied, where the rule of law has not been applied, we are reversing those decisions," he added.

Australia and Saudi Arabia in October both announced their goals of becoming net-zero emitters by 2050. Both of these plans include the continued use of fossil fuels.

Key Climate Pledges

China

China aims to peak CO2 emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. The country is also aiming to (by 2030):

• Lower CO2 emissions per unit of GDP by over 65% from the 2005 level.
• Increase the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to around 25%.
• Increase the forest stock volume by 6Bcm from the 2005 level.
• Bring total installed capacity of wind and solar power to over 1.2bn KWh by 2030.

United States

The US has committed to reduce net GHG emissions by 50-52% by 2030 compared to 2005. The US has pledged to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050.

European Union

The EU and its Member States, acting jointly, commit to reduce emissions by at least 55% by 2030 compared to 1990, to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050.

India

India aims to reduce the emissions intensity of its GDP by 33-35% by 2030, from the level in 2005, and achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2070.

Russia

The Russian Federation has committed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 70% relative to the 1990 level by 2030. It is aiming to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2060.

Indonesia

Indonesia has a target to reduce GHG emissions by 26% (unconditional) and 41% (conditional) by 2030 compared to its "business as usual" scenario.

Brazil

Brazil has pledged to reduce emissions from 2005 levels by 50% in 2030, end illegal deforestation by 2028 and achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050.

Japan

Japan has committed to reduce GHG emissions by 46% by 2030 compared to 2013 levels, and achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050.

Iran

No pledge submitted.

Canada

Canada has committed to a 2030 target of 40-45% below 2005 levels, and achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050.

Mexico

Mexico has a target to reduce 22% of GHG and 51% of black carbon emissions (unconditional) and up to 36% of GHG and 70% of black carbon emissions (conditional) by 2030 compared to its "business as usual" scenario.

South Korea

Republic of Korea has committed to reduce GHG emissions by 24.4% by 2030 compared to 2017 levels (709.1MtCO2e), and achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050.

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia is implementing measures which aim to reduce its emissions by 278 MtCO2e annually from 2020 to 2030. Saudi Arabia has pledged to reach net zero carbon emissions by 2060.

Australia

Australia has unveiled plans to decarbonise the country's economy by 2050, but phasing out the production or use of fossil fuels has not been included.

South Africa

South Africa commits to reducing its GHG emissions to 398-510 MtCO2e by 2025, and to 350-420 MtCO2e by 2030. Saudi Africa has pledged to reach net zero carbon emissions by 2060.

Turkey

Turkey has a target to reduce up to 21% of GHG emissions from the "business as usual" level by 2030. Turkey has pledged to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2053.

UK

The UK has pledged to reduce economy-wide greenhouse gas emissions by at least 68% by 2030, compared to 1990 levels. The UK has pledged to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050.

Pakistan

Pakistan commits to reducing its emissions by 50% by 2030 compared to "business as usual" (15% unconditional, 35% conditional).

Thailand

Thailand commits to reduce emissions by 20% (unconditional) and up to 25% (conditional) compared to "business as usual" by 2030. Thailand has vowed to reach net zero carbon emissions by 2065.

Argentina

Argentina commits to an economy wide unconditional cap net emissions of 359 MtCO2e in 2030. Argentina has pledged to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050.

Malaysia

Malaysia commits to reduce emissions intensity (per GDP) by 45% by 2030 compared to 2005 levels, and achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050.

Nigeria

Nigeria commits to reduce GHG emissions by 20% (unconditional) and 47% (conditional) by 2030 compared to "business as usual". Nigeria has pledged to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2060.

Egypt

No pledge submitted.

Venezuela

Venezuela will aim to reduce the country's emissions by at least 20% by 2030 in relation to the baseline scenario, understood as a hypothetical scenario in which the plan is not implemented.

Kazakhstan

The Republic of Kazakhstan intends to achieve an economy-wide target of 15% (unconditional) - 25% (conditional target) reduction in GHG emissions by 2030 compared to 1990. It has pledged to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050.

Colombia

Colombia commits to maximum of 169.44 MtCO2e in 2030 (equivalent to 51% reduction compared to "business as usual") and reduce black carbon emissions by 40% compared to 2014 in 2030.

United Arab Emirates

The UAE commits to reduce GHG emissions by 23.5% for 2030 compared to "business as usual".

Ukraine

Ukraine commits to reduce net GHG emissions by 65% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels. Ukraine has pledged to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2060.

Philippines

Philippines has committed to reduce cumulative GHG emissions by 2.71% (unconditional) and 75% (conditional) comparing to "business as usual" for the period 2020 to 2030 (3,340.3 MtCO2e).

Uzbekistan

The Republic of Uzbekistan intends to decrease specific emissions of greenhouse gases per unit of GDP by 10% by 2030 from level of 2010.

Myanmar

Myanmar has committed to reduce cumulative GHG emissions over 2021-2030 by 244.52 MtCO2e (unconditional) and 414.75 MtCO2e (conditional) compared to "business as usual".

Bangladesh

Bangladesh has committed to reduce GHG emissions by 6.73% (27.56 MtCO2e, unconditional) and additional 15.12% (61.9 MtCO2e, conditional) by 2030 compared to "business as usual".

Algeria

Algeria has committed to GHG emission reduction of 7% to 22% by 2030 compared to "business as usual" levels, conditional on external assistance for the financing of the development and transfer of technologies and capacity building.

Iraq

Iraq commits to sectoral measures in energy, industry, agriculture, water and housing sectors.

Ethiopia

Ethiopia commits to reduce GHG emissions by 14% (unconditional) and 68.8% (conditional) by 2030 compared to "business as usual".

Peru

Peru commits to limit its GHG emissions to a maximum level of 208.8 MtCO2e (unconditional) and 179.0 MtCO2e (conditional) in 2030.