AME maintains its forecast that oil demand growth will remain strong and Brent crude oil will average US$75/bbl in the December quarter as global oil demand continues to be hampered by Covid-19.

AME’s Asian Composite LNG price forecast for the December quarter of $25.00/MBtu has been significantly outperformed so far, reflecting the stabilising but still restricted supply market throughout November.

AME’s December quarter and March quarter 2022 forecasts for the global average crack spread price are US$19/bbl and US$21/bbl, respectively.

Reduced trading activity by Asian mills has recently put pressure on Australian metallurgical coal indices. The supply market seems to have partially recovered, putting a halt to the fast-paced upward trend in prices.

La Niña weather patterns are threatening damaging floods and severe adverse weather conditions that might lead to a further rebound in coal prices. Exports of Australian thermal coal could face more disruptions after excessive precipitation affected access to mines in New South Wales’ key producing regions.

Benchmark 62% iron ore prices dropped to an 18-month low at US$89/t in mid-November, driven by continuing steel production curbs in China in line with its decarbonisation goals and the turmoil in the country’s property industry.

Average steel prices continued to strengthen in the September quarter as demand for steel products remained elevated. AME expects steel prices to moderate this quarter after a strong runup.

In November, copper prices pulled back from the near-record highs of ~US$10,500/t achieved in mid-October as tightness on exchanges eased and attention refocused on the increasingly strained global economy, with major concerns over continued high inflation levels, the global energy crisis and slowing China growth.

Growth in the demand for nickel continues unabated, seemingly unaffected by headwinds from the pandemic outbreaks, energy crisis, and concern over China’s real estate sector.

The zinc spot price during November fell slightly from the record prices seen in October, with the average AME European zinc spot price for the month at US$3,310/t, down 1.5% from the October average.

A northern energy crisis continues to affect the aluminium market, with smelters in Europe struggling with surging power costs caused by limited gas supplies pushing up prices, adding to the suite of issues constraining supply and slowing demand in China.

Gold prices rose at the beginning of November on the back of dovish central bank policy and concerns about continuing inflation in the US. Even as the US dollar gained ground, gold prices stayed high.