Once upon a time, Europe was on its gallant path towards decarbonization, clearly departing from coal to procure cleaner sources of energy. However, a global pandemic, record high gas prices and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have created the perfect conditions for the renaissance of coal in Europe’s energy generation.

AME forecasts the Newcastle 6,300 spot price to average US$250/t in the June quarter of 2022. Europe’s need to secure energy supply could lead to a delay in coal plant closures and the temporary reopening of closed power plants.

The Russia-Ukraine crisis has created a new negative supply shock for the global economy. AME now expects global economic growth of 3.9% this year, down from our previous forecast of 4.5%. In 2023, AME expects global GDP growth of 3.2%.

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