Since late 2019, China has been hoovering up aluminium to feed its apparently insatiable appetite from its downstream products sector. This has been partially spurred by the rapid bounce-back from the initial Covid-19 lockdowns, along with the country’s increasing difficulties powering ever-expanding primary production capacity amid the imposition of energy efficiency targets.

Record pricing levels for primary aluminium metal were not helped by Russia’s actions in Ukraine, however, with predominately individuals facing sanction, as opposed to companies’, commodity movements have continued, though uncertainty on future measures certainly remains.

The Russia-Ukraine crisis has created a new negative supply shock for the global economy. AME now expects global economic growth of 3.9% this year, down from our previous forecast of 4.5%. In 2023, AME expects global GDP growth of 3.2%.

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